War rationale - Version 10.0

TomPaine.com. - March 17, 2004


War Rationale: Version 10.0

In the year since the invasion of Iraq, the Bush administration has
repeatedly shifted its justification for going to war and constantly
changed its story on intelligence, the United Nations, reconstruction,
political transition and the cost to the American taxpayer. More than
anything, the administration's war in Iraq resembles a software
program that, at first, works brilliantly, but then catches the user
in a cycle of "fatal error" messages.

Here then, in Silicon Valley terms, is a review of the Bush
administration's year in Iraq:

Saddam Hussein poses an 'imminent threat' to the American people.

    * Version 1.0 - Saddam Hussein is an imminent threat
    * Version 1.01 - Saddam Hussein is a gathering threat
    * Version 1.02 - Saddam Hussein poses a real and dangerous threat
    * Version 1.1 - The smoking gun will be a mushroom cloud
    * Version 1.2 - We can't afford to wait
    * Version 1.3 - We never said imminent
    * Version 1.3.1 - OK, maybe we did say it once or twice
    * Version 1.4 - We should have been more precise

Saddam Hussein is ready to use weapons of mass destruction.

    * Version 2.1 - Saddam has weapons of mass destruction
    * Version 2.2 - Saddam has nuclear weapons
    * Version 2.3 - Saddam has biological agents he's never accounted for
    * Version 2.3.1 - The trailers are mobile labs for producing
chemical weapons
    * Version 2.3.2 - Unmanned aircraft are ready to spread Saddam's
biological weapons
    * Version 2.4 - Saddam's going to make more of all these weapons
    * Version 2.5 - We all know where the weapons are
    * Version 2.5.1 - Well, Saddam has used weapons of mass destruction
    * Version 2.5.2 - Iraq is a big country. We'll find the weapons
eventually.
    * Version 2.5.3 - Saddam had weapons of mass destruction programs
    * Version 2.5.4 - Saddam had "weapons of mass destruction
program-related activities"
    * Version 2.5.5 - David Kay? Who's David Kay?
    * Version 2.6 - It's not about misleading the American
people—Saddam Hussein is gone and that's the most important thing

The intelligence is clear.

    * Version 3.0 - We based our statements on our available intelligence
    * Version 3.1 - Saddam tried to buy uranium ore in Niger
    * Version 3.1.2 - Well, that was what the British told us
    * Version 3.1.3 - Did we tell you about Joe Wilson's wife?
    * Version 3.1.4 - Do you know a good lawyer?
    * Version 3.2 - The intelligence is absolutely clear
    * Version 3.2.1 - Intelligence is never 100 percent certain
    * Version 3.2.2 - We didn't manipulate the intelligence
    * Version 3.3 - There was no consensus within the intelligence
community
    * Version 3.3.1 - We saw the same intelligence the last
administration did

Saddam Hussein has deep ties to Al Qaeda.

    * Version 4.0 - Saddam has long-standing ties to Al Qaeda
    * Version 4.0.1 - You can't distinguish between Saddam and Al Qaeda
    * Version 4.0.2 - There is an Al Qaeda terrorist network in Iraq
    * Version 4.0.3 - Saddam has provided Al Qaeda with chemical and
biological weapons training.
    * Version 4.0.4 - Saddam will give his weapons to Al Qaeda
    * Version 4.0.5 - Colin Powell: I have not seen smoking-gun,
concrete evidence about the connection [between Al Qaeda and Iraq]
    * Version 4.0.6 - Vice President Cheney: I still believe there's a
connection.
    * Version 4.0.7 - CIA Director George Tenet: I told Dick not to
say that.

The United Nations just can't handle this.

    * Version 5.0 - The UN had 12 years to deal with this
    * Version 5.1 - We don't trust the UN to handle this
    * Version 5.1.1 - We don't need the UN's help
    * Version 5.1.2 - The UN should play a vital, but not central role
    * Version 5.1.3 - You there, UN, tell Ayatollah Sistani that
elections aren't possible
    * Version 5.1.4 - UN, please oversee the election process
    * Version 5.1.5 - Pretty please? We'll pay our dues

The war in Iraq won't hurt our efforts in Afghanistan or the hunt for
bin Laden.

    * Version 6.0 - Iraq won't affect our hunt for bin Laden
    * Version 6.1 - Assets have been moved from Afghanistan to Iraq
    * Version 6.1.1 - Assets are being returned to Afghanistan
    * Version 6.2 - We're mounting a spring offensive against bin Laden
    * Version 6.2.1 - We'll catch bin Laden this year
    * Version 6.2.2 - We hope to catch bin Laden this year
    * Version 6.3 - Even if we catch bin Laden, the threat will still
exist.

Mission accomplished.

    * Version 7.0 - We won't need hundreds of thousands of
troops—that's wildly off the mark
    * Version 7.1 - Mission accomplished
    * Version 7.1.1 - We'll stay as long as needed and not one day more
    * Version 7.1.2 - The troops will be home in six months
    * Version 7.1.3 - The Iraqi Army will provide security
    * Version 7.1.4 - Where's the Iraqi Army?
    * Version 7.1.5 - We've disbanded the Iraqi Army
    * Version 7.1.3 - The troops will stay a year and be replaced
    * Version 7.2 - We're training the Iraqi army—Iraqification will work
    * Version 7.2.1 - We don't need any more American troops
    * Version 7.2.2 - Well, maybe we do
    * Version 7.2.3 - We're keeping 30,000 more troops on active duty
than were authorized
    * Version 7.2.4 - We don't know if this increase in troops is a
spike or a plateau
    * Version 7.2.5 - We're establishing stop loss so troops can't leave
    * Version 7.2.6 - The Army is planning multi-year rotations

The cost to the American taxpayer.

    * Version 8.0 - Economic advisor Larry Lindsey: The war will cost
$200 billion
    * Version 8.0.1 - President Bush: You're fired!
    * Version 8.1 - The war will pay for itself very quickly
    * Version 8.1.1 - Iraqi oil revenue will pay for reconstruction
    * Version 8.2 - Our allies will help us
    * Version 8.3 - We'll pay for the war through supplementals
    * Version 8.3.1 - Congress wouldn't let us put it in the budget
    * Version 8.3.2 - Can we please have $87 billion?
    * Version 8.3.3 - Well, we really can't calculate what it will cost...
    * Version 8.3.4 - Well, maybe we can—$50 billion may be on the low
side
    * Version 8.3.5 - Ask us after November 2...

Democracy comes to Iraq.

    * Version 9.0 - We will be greeted as liberators
    * Version 9.0.1 - We'll establish democracy in Iraq
    * Version 9.1 - We'll turn this back to the Iraqis quickly
    * Version 9.1.1 - President Chalabi will be welcomed with open arms
    * Version 9.1.2 - Well, not so fast—we're prohibiting political
parties
    * Version 9.2 - We have the November 15 agreement—it's unchangeable
    * Version 9.2.1 - We will appoint a small governing council
    * Version 9.2.2 - Well, maybe a larger one
    * Version 9.3 - We don't favor elections
    * Version 9.3.1 - Caucuses work in Iowa, why not Iraq?
    * Version 9.3.2 - OK fine, we'll have elections
    * Version 9.4 - We can't return sovereignty until there is a
constitution
    * Version 9.4.1 - Never mind, we'll turn over sovereignty first
    * Version 9.4.2 - We need to return this to the Iraqis—How about
June 30?
    * Version 9.4.3 - We're still focused on elections—the ones on
November 2

The bottom line.

    * Version 10.0 - Trust us. We know what we're doing

Editor's Note: This piece originally appeared on the Center For
American Progress website on March 19, 2004.